The Next President: New at Reason

Michelle Obama has better odds of being the next president than Hillary Clinton. Who else is up?

John Stossel writes:

Will Donald Trump be re-elected in 2020?

Probably not, say people who bet. They give Trump only a 23 percent chance. They do pick him over all other politicians, but the favorite is "other."

I know this because I follow the betting odds at ElectionBettingOdds.com.

Yes, bettors were wrong about Trump's election and Brexit, but those were exceptions, and those votes unusual. Even Brexit's promoters predicted a loss; even Trump said he thought he'd lose when he saw the election-night exit polls.

But betting odds are usually right. It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that if the bettors gave a candidate, say, a 65 percent chance to win, and he lost, bettors were "wrong." But remember, 65 percent means bettors also thought there was a 35 percent chance that candidate would lose.

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