Futures Open Down Hard, S&P Nears Bear Market (Again), Treasury Curve (Re)Inversion Imminent

June 12, 2022   |   Tags:
Futures Open Down Hard, S&P Nears Bear Market (Again), Treasury Curve (Re)Inversion Imminent

US equity futures have opened down hard in quiet Sunday night trading with Nasdaq the hardest hit, down 1.5%. This move leaves the S&P down over 6% in the last 3 days...

...and once again nearing the 'bear market' Maginot Line...

Which we doubt will be so eagerly bid this time ahead of this week's chaotic event risk (FOMC) and technical factors (VIX/Equity opex).

Gold is up modestly, oil down over 1%, and Longer-end Treasury futures are down very small for now (equiv around 1bp higher in yield)...

But the short-end is getting hammered again with 2Y Yields up 8bps...

Which has pushed the all-knowing 2s10s curve very close inverting... again...

The dollar is extending Thursday and Friday's gains...

As we detailed previously, veteran hedge fund managed Stan Druckenmiller warned this week that:

"My best guess is that we're six months into a bear market," adding that "for those tactically trading, it's possible the first leg of that has ended. But I think it's highly, highly probable that the bear market has a ways to run," he added.

When it comes to investing himself, Druckenmiller said he's taking a step back from trading.

"I've lived through enough bear markets, that if you get aggressive in a bear market, on the short side, you can get your head ripped off in rallies. I'm pretty much taking a break," he said.

Druckenmiller is not alone in his pressimism. Former Obama administration Treasury Secretary Larry Summers predicted the United States will enter an economic recession and suggested the possibility of yet higher gas prices than the country is currently seeing.

“I think the optimists were wrong a year ago in saying we have no inflation and I think they are wrong now if anyone is highly confident that we are going to avoid recession,” he said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, adding that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s predictions are “too optimistic.”

Finally, Druckenmiller worries about the many "bull market geniuses" that were surfing with a hurricane, giving them some nice waves, though like anything, nothing lasts forever.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/12/2022 - 19:55


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