The Election Betting Markets Fell Short. They’re Still the Most Flexible Predictor.
November 10, 2022 | Tags: Abortion, california, Congress, Democratic Party, Drugs, Elections, europe, Government, Gun Rights, guns, Marijuana, Politics, REASON, Republican Party, second amendment, Senate, Sports
The Good: We have divided government. Since Democrats no longer control Congress, they can't bankrupt America quite so fast!
The Bad: Prediction markets, which I touted as the best guide to elections, didn't do so well. Yes, they correctly said Republicans would take the House, but they'd also predicted Republicans would take the Senate. Polls and statistical modelers like Nate Silver did a bit better this time. They also said Republicans would win both, but they gave them only a slight edge.
As I write this Wednesday morning, Republicans have (according to ElectionBettingOdds.com, the site Maxim Lott created that tracks election betting around the world) a 19 percent chance of winning the Senate.
Nineteen percent isn't zero; they could still win the Senate, but Republicans don't have the 60 to 70 percent chance that bettors gave them in recent weeks.
The Good: Bettors at least adjust their predictions quickly.
Tuesday night, while clods on CBS still said "Democrats and Republicans battle for control of the House," those of us who follow the betting already knew that Republicans would win the House.
Historically, bettors have a great track record. Across 730 candidate chances we've tracked, when something is expected to happen 70 percent of the time, it actually happens about 70 percent of the time.
That's because people with money on the line try harder than pundits to be right. They also adjust quickly when they see they've made a mistake.
At 8:23 p.m., with just 12 percent of the New Hampshire vote counted, bettors gave Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan more than a 90 percent chance of winning the Senate seat, up from 63 percent earlier in the day. You wouldn't have noticed that shift watching TV. The AP didn't call the race until 11:39 p.m.
Bettors also failed to predict President Donald Trump's win in 2016. But they at least gave him a 20 percent chance, much higher than most "expert" statistical modelers, like the Princeton Election Consortium, which gave him an absurd 0.01 percent chance.
Big picture: Betting odds remain the single best and fastest-updating predictor.
The Good: Tuesday night, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' odds of becoming the Republican presidential nominee jumped from 16 percent to 27 percent, while Donald Trump's odds fell to 18 percent. That's probably because of DeSantis' nearly 20-point blowout win in a swing state. I put this in the "good" category because, watching Trump on TV Tuesday night, I'm reminded that he's an ignorant bully who only cares about himself. His mere presence on the public stage hurts America by creating more division and hate. His election "denier" candidates like Doug Mastriano, Doug Bolduc, Tudor Dixon, and John Gibbs all lost.
Also, if DeSantis is nominated in 2024, bettors give him a 74 percent chance of winning, whereas they give Trump just a 47 percent chance.
The Good: If Vice President Kamala Harris is nominated, bettors give her just a 36 percent chance of becoming president.
The Ugly: Long-term incumbents won again: Sens. Patty Murray (D–Wash.), Mike Crapo (R–Idaho), and Chuck Schumer (D–N.Y.), who have spent 29 years in Congress; Sens. Ron Wyden (D–Ore.) and Chuck Grassley (R–Iowa) won, too (42 years).
The Good: Iowa passed an amendment protecting gun rights. Three states passed measures protecting reproductive freedom. Anti-abortion measures in two states lost. Maryland and Missouri legalized recreational weed.
Maybe Good: Ranked choice voting leads in Nevada.
The Bad: Recreational weed lost in Arkansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Sports gambling lost in California. California also banned e-cigarettes, which will create a new criminal black market and kill more cigarette smokers.
The Ugly: Schumer will probably be Senate Majority Leader again.
The Ugly: The Wall Street Journal reports: "Europe Doubles Down on Big Government" with "politicians adding hundreds of thousands of public-sector jobs, guaranteeing business loans."
Won't voters ever ask government to LEAVE PEOPLE ALONE?
It's so sad. All around the world, we don't learn.
By the way, ElectionBettingOdds.com also tracks football odds. The Buffalo Bills, despite losing last Sunday, still lead the Super Bowl pack. The Eagles, Chiefs follow; 49ers, Ravens and Cowboys follow.
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