Bidenomics Blowback – Survey-Based Sentiment Collapses As ‘Hope’ Evaporates

March 28, 2024   |   Tags:
Bidenomics Blowback - Survey-Based Sentiment Collapses As 'Hope' Evaporates

'Soft' survey data has been a bloodbath this week with regional Fed surveys all slumping and this morning's Chicago PMI uglier than all expectations.

That smashed 'hope' - the spread between hard and soft data - back to cycle lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Today's Chicago PMI plunged to 41.4 - its lowest since May 2023 - from 44.0 (and well below the expected bounce to 46.0)...

Source: Bloomberg

That was below all analysts expectations for the second month in a row...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood was even more problematic:

  • New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

  • Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

  • Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

  • Supplier deliveries fell and a faster pace; signaling contraction

  • Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

  • Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

Worse still, Prices paid rose again!

So, in summary: slower growth, declining production, shrinking orders, falling employment... and accelerating inflation - is it any wonder that 'soft survey' data is collapsing - not exactly election-winning headlines.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/28/2024 - 10:40


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